Hi! That's a little like asking "What's the best food?" or "What's your favorite song?" in that the answer depends on the season, time of day, your mood, what you just ate/listened to, and so many more factors. My answer for which stock I would own depends very much on the time frame. There are some stocks I would love to own for 20 years though I doubt they will move much in 2024. Then there are stocks I expect to have a great year that I would be less enthused about owning long-term.
I am a registered investment advisor, so I can't actually recommend anyone buy or sell any security here without a full review of risk tolerances and goals. But if you do want to see a group of stocks that I like, you can always check out the investor letters on my main website, alluvialcapital.com.
On LICT, any concern around getting continued financials and operating data? The last quarterly they posted on OTC and their website was for March/Q123 in mid-July. They put out the info in a press release on September 1, but no financials. I'm a bit spooked since it seems like Calloway's Nursery has stopped providing financials (last data of any kind from Q1 filed in May) and that crushed the stock.
Very little concern. I expect the actual quarterlies to be slow this year due to all the extra processes around the spin-off.
LICT has a pretty distinguished shareholder list with some large value firms and even Warren Buffett himself, so Gabelli would get quite an earful if he tried to go that route.
Thanks for the quick reply. On a related note, still trying to learn the space, what are your thoughts on Calloway's Nursery, do they no longer report any info to the public, and does that mean it will go to expert market?
It does appear that Calloway's is headed to the expert market. Not for a space of a few months since there is a grace period following the time when an annual report would have to be published.
I like Calloway's a lot. I think shareholders can expect continued growth and generous dividends along the way. It's not an appropriate holding for those who may need short-term liquidity or are over-focused on quarter-to-quarter results.
also, i fully support your exit from twitter, and hope you can cross-post content to substack. on a related note, i have a decent solution for you to easily follow a dozen or so of your favorite twitter posters with little effort, and completely avoid the garbage there. reply here, and will send you a short email directly.
Hi! On PX, I continue to love the business model and the valuation. Roughly 11.5x normalized FCF for a growing asset management company with long-term predictable revenue is excellent. But while AUM growth has continued to be very strong, I have been less impressed with their margin development and the lack of success in adding additional managers to the stable. I get that they're funding a growth machine but they have struggled to achieve the 55-60% EBITDA margin they originally projected and are now guiding to the low 50%s. And we are approaching two years without any action on acquisitions. Better no acquisitions than a bad acquisition, but they identified this as a key part of their business plan at IPO and have not delivered.
I like the CEO change, though I think the former co-CEOS got paid a little too handsomely to step back. The new guy has a better Rolodex and the serious industry credibility that Albert and Webb lacked. (They are no slouches, certainly, but a former Goldman Sachs senior manager definitely has more.) New guy is getting paid well to run P10, so I expect him to deliver in kind. I am giving him six months to either make another highly accretive acquisition or successfully achieve distribution of P10 strategies into a significant new vertical.
probably too soon for the market to be rendering any verdict mainly on the new CEO, profiled below.
from SEC : Pursuant to the Employment Agreement, Mr. Sarsfield will be entitled to receive: (i) an annual base salary of $1 million; (ii) a target annual cash bonus of $1.5 million based on certain performance criteria and benchmarks to be set each year by the Board or the Compensation Committee thereof; (iii) a target annual incentive bonus of $5 million based on certain performance...
profile:
"...he was one of a number of Goldman Sachs executives to leave following a companywide reorganization....He wants P10 to go after bigger pools of capital and bigger clients than it has in the past. He and other firm leaders think they deserve a seat at the relatively small table when limited partners go looking for somewhere to invest. .... The new CEO does not plan a major marketing campaign for P10. Rather, he said the firm will likely attend more industry conferences, have its experts make more appearances on TV and increase its use of social media."
Hey Dave, love this write-up, thanks! One question on MCEM - I've been looking at it for years, and I always figured it's safer to value it in terms of price / book to avoid buying at peak cycle earnings (this could have been a mistake). We're in a bit of a cement boom, and P/B is nearing 2x for a business that typically earns 10-15% returns on equity. I wonder if a comparable valuation on EBITDA is a little dangerous given where we are in the cement cycle?
Dave I learn something every time I read one of your write-ups. It amazes me the diligence you have to search and find so many of these investing ideas. Your investing philosophy reminds me a lot of Joel Greenblatt. Long SUMXF, a few ECIP banks & Seneca foods along with you. Margin of safety and lots of upside in MHO. Keep the writing coming please!
Supremex’s Q3 run rate earnings are 64 cents, which I think is close to a short-term bottom. I think normalized earnings are closer to 85 cents and shares are worth at least 9x, or $7.65.
So if you were an aggressive investor and wanted to buy and hold one stock for the next twenty years, which would it be? I am an avid reader of your posts and letters, by the way.
I would look to the highest-quality businesses that are most likely to experience organic revenue growth and least likely to be significantly disrupted. P10 Inc. and Rand Worldwide are those for me, but I am not recommending anyone else buy them.
Some great ideas, Dave! Thanks!
monarch seems like a good little biz. thabks for sharing your thoughts. cheers!
I really enjoy your research about these quaint small companies. If you could only own one stock, what would it be?
Hi! That's a little like asking "What's the best food?" or "What's your favorite song?" in that the answer depends on the season, time of day, your mood, what you just ate/listened to, and so many more factors. My answer for which stock I would own depends very much on the time frame. There are some stocks I would love to own for 20 years though I doubt they will move much in 2024. Then there are stocks I expect to have a great year that I would be less enthused about owning long-term.
I am a registered investment advisor, so I can't actually recommend anyone buy or sell any security here without a full review of risk tolerances and goals. But if you do want to see a group of stocks that I like, you can always check out the investor letters on my main website, alluvialcapital.com.
On LICT, any concern around getting continued financials and operating data? The last quarterly they posted on OTC and their website was for March/Q123 in mid-July. They put out the info in a press release on September 1, but no financials. I'm a bit spooked since it seems like Calloway's Nursery has stopped providing financials (last data of any kind from Q1 filed in May) and that crushed the stock.
Very little concern. I expect the actual quarterlies to be slow this year due to all the extra processes around the spin-off.
LICT has a pretty distinguished shareholder list with some large value firms and even Warren Buffett himself, so Gabelli would get quite an earful if he tried to go that route.
Thanks for the quick reply. On a related note, still trying to learn the space, what are your thoughts on Calloway's Nursery, do they no longer report any info to the public, and does that mean it will go to expert market?
It does appear that Calloway's is headed to the expert market. Not for a space of a few months since there is a grace period following the time when an annual report would have to be published.
I like Calloway's a lot. I think shareholders can expect continued growth and generous dividends along the way. It's not an appropriate holding for those who may need short-term liquidity or are over-focused on quarter-to-quarter results.
dave,
can you blog some quick thoughts on px ?
also, i fully support your exit from twitter, and hope you can cross-post content to substack. on a related note, i have a decent solution for you to easily follow a dozen or so of your favorite twitter posters with little effort, and completely avoid the garbage there. reply here, and will send you a short email directly.
Hi! On PX, I continue to love the business model and the valuation. Roughly 11.5x normalized FCF for a growing asset management company with long-term predictable revenue is excellent. But while AUM growth has continued to be very strong, I have been less impressed with their margin development and the lack of success in adding additional managers to the stable. I get that they're funding a growth machine but they have struggled to achieve the 55-60% EBITDA margin they originally projected and are now guiding to the low 50%s. And we are approaching two years without any action on acquisitions. Better no acquisitions than a bad acquisition, but they identified this as a key part of their business plan at IPO and have not delivered.
I like the CEO change, though I think the former co-CEOS got paid a little too handsomely to step back. The new guy has a better Rolodex and the serious industry credibility that Albert and Webb lacked. (They are no slouches, certainly, but a former Goldman Sachs senior manager definitely has more.) New guy is getting paid well to run P10, so I expect him to deliver in kind. I am giving him six months to either make another highly accretive acquisition or successfully achieve distribution of P10 strategies into a significant new vertical.
probably too soon for the market to be rendering any verdict mainly on the new CEO, profiled below.
from SEC : Pursuant to the Employment Agreement, Mr. Sarsfield will be entitled to receive: (i) an annual base salary of $1 million; (ii) a target annual cash bonus of $1.5 million based on certain performance criteria and benchmarks to be set each year by the Board or the Compensation Committee thereof; (iii) a target annual incentive bonus of $5 million based on certain performance...
profile:
"...he was one of a number of Goldman Sachs executives to leave following a companywide reorganization....He wants P10 to go after bigger pools of capital and bigger clients than it has in the past. He and other firm leaders think they deserve a seat at the relatively small table when limited partners go looking for somewhere to invest. .... The new CEO does not plan a major marketing campaign for P10. Rather, he said the firm will likely attend more industry conferences, have its experts make more appearances on TV and increase its use of social media."
https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2023/12/28/p10-luke-sarsfield-robert-alpert-alternative-asset.html
Color me not exactly inspired by that plan, but The new guy deserves a chance to run his strategy.
The market is clearly unimpressed. Something has to change. Today's trading is a post-IPO low and a new low for EV/AUM.
Hey Dave, love this write-up, thanks! One question on MCEM - I've been looking at it for years, and I always figured it's safer to value it in terms of price / book to avoid buying at peak cycle earnings (this could have been a mistake). We're in a bit of a cement boom, and P/B is nearing 2x for a business that typically earns 10-15% returns on equity. I wonder if a comparable valuation on EBITDA is a little dangerous given where we are in the cement cycle?
Dave I learn something every time I read one of your write-ups. It amazes me the diligence you have to search and find so many of these investing ideas. Your investing philosophy reminds me a lot of Joel Greenblatt. Long SUMXF, a few ECIP banks & Seneca foods along with you. Margin of safety and lots of upside in MHO. Keep the writing coming please!
Am I missing something? Supermax's earnings are close to an all time high and shares are trading at 6x, which you mentioned is close to fair value.
Supremex’s Q3 run rate earnings are 64 cents, which I think is close to a short-term bottom. I think normalized earnings are closer to 85 cents and shares are worth at least 9x, or $7.65.
So if you were an aggressive investor and wanted to buy and hold one stock for the next twenty years, which would it be? I am an avid reader of your posts and letters, by the way.
I would look to the highest-quality businesses that are most likely to experience organic revenue growth and least likely to be significantly disrupted. P10 Inc. and Rand Worldwide are those for me, but I am not recommending anyone else buy them.